Modeling Transportation Logistics Systems in Post-Conflict Zones

Modeling Transportation Logistics Systems in Post-Conflict Zones

Promoting Economic Viability, Resilience, and Sustainability in Iraq

This book presents an integrative research methodology designed to support economic recovery and sustainable development in post-conflict regions, with a focus on Iraq. It addresses the critical question of how transportation logistics systems—and the regions they serve—can be made economically viable, resilient, and sustainable in the aftermath of armed conflict.

The methodology unfolds in distinct but interconnected stages. The first stage provides a comprehensive overview of the Iraqi economy and its transportation infrastructure, supported by a robust database of transportation, economic, and demographic indicators.

In the second stage, the post-ISIS state of Iraq’s transportation system is assessed in depth. This includes a detailed analysis of logistics operations, recent infrastructure investments, and projections for future development. A key component of this stage is an expert elicitation process involving 20 stakeholder groups to identify investment priorities and stakeholder dynamics.

In the methodology’s third stage, alternative approaches to modeling interdependent dynamic decision-making in transportation logistics systems are presented and illustrated. These approaches include a) formulating and solving stochastic multiple-optimization problems with equilibrium constraints involving risk-averse players, b) differential spatial price equilibrium modeling in continuous time, and c) recursive dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium modeling.  

The methodology also includes an elaboration and illustration of the notion of ‘prosilience,’ or the act of engaging in anticipatory contingency planning to promote the resilience of transport logistics systems to future threats.

Combining theoretical insight with practical application, this book offers a valuable framework for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners working to rebuild and strengthen transportation systems in fragile and conflict-affected settings.

This book presents an integrative research methodology designed to support economic recovery and sustainable development in post-conflict regions, with a focus on Iraq. It addresses the critical question of how transportation logistics systems—and the regions they serve—can be made economically viable, resilient, and sustainable in the aftermath of armed conflict.

The methodology unfolds in distinct but interconnected stages. The first stage provides a comprehensive overview of the Iraqi economy and its transportation infrastructure, supported by a robust database of transportation, economic, and demographic indicators.

In the second stage, the post-ISIS state of Iraq’s transportation system is assessed in depth. This includes a detailed analysis of logistics operations, recent infrastructure investments, and projections for future development. A key component of this stage is an expert elicitation process involving 20 stakeholder groups to identify investment priorities and stakeholder dynamics.

In the methodology’s third stage, alternative approaches to modeling interdependent dynamic decision-making in transportation logistics systems are presented and illustrated. These approaches include a) formulating and solving stochastic multiple-optimization problems with equilibrium constraints involving risk-averse players, b) differential spatial price equilibrium modeling in continuous time, and c) recursive dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium modeling.  

The methodology also includes an elaboration and illustration of the notion of ‘prosilience,’ or the act of engaging in anticipatory contingency planning to promote the resilience of transport logistics systems to future threats.

Combining theoretical insight with practical application, this book offers a valuable framework for researchers, policymakers, and practitioners working to rebuild and strengthen transportation systems in fragile and conflict-affected settings.

Highlights

• Offers a rare, in-depth analysis of Iraq’s transportation logistics system in the aftermath of armed conflict Provides a cutting-edge, problem-driven, interdisciplinary, and policy-relevant application of regional science Includes projections and strategic guidance for future transportation investments

Über den Autor

Kieran Donaghy is Professor Emeritus of City and Regional Planning at Cornell University (USA), where he also served as Department Chair and Acting Dean of the College of Architecture, Art, and Planning. He is a former Executive Director of the Regional Science Association International and has advised organizations including the World Bank, European Commission, and U.S. Army. Donaghy has supervised 31 Ph.D. students and taught extensively in planning methods, spatial economics, and systems analysis. His research focuses on climate adaptation, economic geography, monetary policy impacts, and circular growth. He is an editor of  Networks and Spatial Economics, a Fellow of the Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability, and an elected Fellow of the Regional Science Association International.

Adam Rose is a Research Professor at the Sol Price School of Public Policy and Viterbi School of Engineering, and Director Emeritus at the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Threats and Emergencies (CREATE) at the University of Southern California (USA). His research centers on the economics of disasters, resilience, and recovery. He has led major studies on events such as 9/11, pandemics, and cyber-attacks, and developed comprehensive frameworks for economic consequence analysis. Rose has authored several books and over 250 peer-reviewed publications. He is a Fellow of the Society for Risk Analysis and the Regional Science Association International, and recipient of numerous awards for research excellence and policy impact.